158.52 buys an L. 111.42 buys a W.

Same league. Different prices. Glock Purdy scored 158.52 and lost to Ivan’s 186.62. In a different matchup, GWIDDYIN scored 111.42 and beat imalik’s 94.52.

Match of the week

ivan1265 186.62 — Glock Purdy 158.52. Ivan leaves 4-0; Glock leaves 3-1. Glock beat eight other scores. Ivan was the ninth.

147.98 still was not enough for Glen Burnie. Pirate Flag escaped Voltron by 4.94. Take your complaints to page two.

NO REFUNDS.

Pirate Flag 129.70, Voltron FC 124.76: Wilson paid off immediately

Gianni added Emanuel Wilson before Week 4 and put him straight into the lineup for 27.00. Wilson and Bijan Robinson combined for 54.70, with another 20.60 from Brock Bowers to help cover Parker Washington's 2.00. The 4.94-point win was Gianni's third straight after losing in Week 1.

His recent message to the league was laugh now, cry later. At 3–1, he gets another week to enjoy that one.

Vi has been declaring that the league is his, which makes falling to 2–2 a little awkward. Quinshon Judkins contributed 21.60 and Chris Olave 19.60, but Dalton Schultz and DJ Moore combined for 5.60. Deebo Samuel scored 18.00 on the bench. Replacing Moore's 2.70 in the FLEX would have produced 140.06 and a win.

That swap is easy to make after seeing the scores. Whether it was the right call before kickoff is a separate argument.

Gianni is also third in four-week all-play at 25–11, behind Ameed and Ivan. The narrow win deserves some luck talk; his season has been better than this one margin suggests.

AsianPersuasion 157.76, Glen Burnie Goons 147.98: Kamar had just added Doubs

Rob got 78.00 from CeeDee Lamb and Kyren Williams, then 17.40 from Devaughn Vele and 17.00 from George Kittle. He won by 9.78 to reach 2–2. He's already exchanging Week 7 challenges with Farhan, and the schedule confirms they'll get their game.

Kamar scored 147.98, fifth among ten teams this week, and still fell to 1–3. Zay Flowers supplied 25.80 and Sam LaPorta 22.40. The painful part: Kamar had added Romeo Doubs before Week 4, then left his 23.80 on the bench. In hindsight, using Doubs instead of Matthew Golden's 11.70 would have yielded 160.08.

The Goons have more season points than Asian, which gives Kamar something to complain about. Both teams are 17–19 in four-week all-play comparisons, though. The larger point total hasn't translated into beating more of the field each week.

Cold Rome 149.78, COKEHEADS 102.88: Farhan gets Ivan next

Farhan returned to the win column by 46.90, Week 4's largest margin. Nico Collins led with 30.80, followed by Malik Nabers at 23.20, Jonathan Taylor at 22.70 and Chase Brown at 19.10. Those four alone produced 96.80.

Cho got 16.50 from Michael Wilson and 15.90 from Derrick Henry, but Ja'Marr Chase and Emeka Egbuka combined for 9.00. COKEHEADS finished with the week's second-lowest total and a third straight defeat.

Rome is now 3–1 with 580.92 season points; Cho is 1–3 with 477.52. Farhan and Rob have a Week 7 argument underway, but unbeaten Ivan gets the next shot at Rome. Cho draws Gianni's Pirate Flag, which is coming off three straight wins.

Starting Denzel Boston instead of Emeka Egbuka and Isaiah Likely instead of Josh Downs would have lifted Cho to 121.48, still 28.30 short. Both swaps fit the lineup rules. Even the hindsight repair leaves Farhan with a comfortable win; Ivan is a tougher assignment next week.

GWIDDYIN 111.42, imalik 94.52: Raif gets his first win

Raif got his first win with the week's lowest winning score. Chuba Hubbard and Alvin Kamara combined for 48.70, and Josh Allen added 19.52. That covered Ladd McConkey's recorded zero and Travis Kelce's 3.50. The Chargers confirmed McConkey was active before kickoff; their Monday update says he played 24 snaps before being ruled out with a foot injury. His zero came in a game he was available to start.

Ibrahim got 26.70 from Tee Higgins and 16.30 from James Cook, while Rashee Rice recorded zero and Dalton Kincaid 1.70. The Chiefs' October 5 recap confirms Rice left the game early with a hamstring injury. The 16.90-point loss left Ibrahim 0–4. Rice's exit cut his game short; it cannot tell us what a healthy Rice would have scored.

He had added Will Reichard before Week 4, then left the kicker's 19.00 on the bench. Two hindsight swaps would have changed the result: Tucker Kraft for Kincaid adds 14.80 and still leaves Ibrahim short; Reichard for Evan McPherson adds another 14.00, taking him to 123.32.

It's a winning lineup now that all the scores are known. Ibrahim still has to defend those choices as decisions he would have made before kickoff.

Raif now gets Ameed. His winning 111.42 was below all four Glock scores so far; Ameed’s lowest was 145.18. Raif will probably need more to make this a streak, though neither team’s past score decides Week 5.

Injury reporting: Chargers inactives, Oct 4; Chargers update, Oct 5; Chiefs recap, Oct 5.

Ivan 186.62, Glock Purdy 158.52: Ameed picked the wrong week for 158

Ameed recently named Jaylen Warren his league winner. Warren supplied 15.60, while Tetairoa McMillan went for 45.20. Even with First Take's second-highest team score, Glock lost by 28.10. His 158.52 would have beaten any of the other eight teams.

Ivan got 89.90 from Javonte Williams, Kenneth Walker and Puka Nacua, plus 25.72 from Joe Burrow. The matchup produced 345.14 points, and Ivan left as the league's only unbeaten team at 4–0. He's been talking about putting up 200. He hasn't done it here, but 186.62 was plenty for this opponent.

Ivan also leads cumulative scoring, 635.90 to 622.08. Ameed can answer with a 30–6 four-week all-play comparison to Ivan's 29–7. Those are hypothetical results against the full field each week, so they won't get him this win back. They do give him a reasonable case to stay in the best-team argument.

Only 13.82 season points separate them. Does Ivan’s head-to-head win settle the best-team argument, or does Ameed’s stronger all-play record keep it open?

MONDAY MAKES EVERYONE A GENIUS.

Legal retrospective swaps using recorded Week 4 scores. Opponents stay unchanged. Hindsight cannot tell us what was knowable before kickoff. These are counterfactuals; no actual results have changed.

Vi: one different FLEX

DJ Moore: 2.70. Bench alternative Deebo Samuel: 18.00. 124.76 − 2.70 + 18.00 = 140.06. That would beat Pirate Flag’s 129.70 by 10.36. The original defeat was 4.94; the bench had enough points to change the ending.

Kamar: one different receiver

Matthew Golden: 11.70. Bench alternative Romeo Doubs: 23.80. 147.98 − 11.70 + 23.80 = 160.08. That would beat AsianPersuasion’s 157.76 by 2.32. Kamar left the points for a win on the bench.

Ibrahim: the tight end and kicker

Tucker Kraft for Dalton Kincaid adds 14.80, taking 94.52 to 109.32: still short. Will Reichard for Evan McPherson adds another 14.00. The new total is 123.32, ahead of GWIDDYIN’s 111.42.

Which swap would you actually make before kickoff? Name the decision. Give the football reason. The final score is not an argument.

THE TABLE DOES NOT ACCEPT EXPLANATIONS.

Standings reconstructed through completed Week 4. PF means cumulative points. Playoffs is the model’s estimated qualification chance. The divider marks today’s sixth place; it is not a clinching line.

The uncomfortable receipt

The Goons have more points than Voltron and AsianPersuasion. Both sit above them. One fewer win matters. GWIDDYIN has fewer points than imalik, but the head-to-head win and a 1-3 record. Points explain performance; results decide the table.

Read the fine print

200,000 simulated seasons use Weeks 1-4 scores and the actual remaining schedule. Four-game team averages are pulled toward the league average. No player, injury, NFL bye, trade or waiver forecasts. Four games leave substantial uncertainty. Nobody has clinched. Model spread is sensitivity to alternative assumptions, not a confidence interval.

Pirate Flag is Gianni’s team; GWIDDYIN is Raif’s.

Read the complete model and source notes

THE PREMIUM L — GLOCK PURDY

158.52 points. Second-highest team score. Lost anyway. The most expensive losing ticket of the week.

THE MAIN ATTRACTION — TETAIROA McMILLAN

45.20 for Glock. First Take's highest-scoring starter this week. One player did everything except change the opponent.

UNCLAIMED POINTS — KYLE MONANGAI

28.00 on the Goons' bench: the biggest bench score in the league this week. A hindsight receipt, not proof of an obvious pregame decision.

THE CLEARANCE WIN — GWIDDYIN

111.42 was the lowest winning score. The first win still counts exactly once.

THE WIDEST EXIT — COLD ROME

149.78–102.88 over COKEHEADS. A 46.90-point margin: Week 4's largest.

FIVE STARTERS WHO PRINTED POINTS

1. Tetairoa McMillan — 45.20 — Glock Purdy
2. CeeDee Lamb — 41.30 — AsianPersuasion
3. Kyren Williams — 36.70 — AsianPersuasion
4. Javonte Williams — 31.30 — ivan1265
5. Kenneth Walker — 30.90 — ivan1265

Asian and Ivan claimed four of the five spots. Glock had the biggest individual performance and the losing receipt.

WHO GETS YOUR WEEK 4 MVP: TET, CEEDEE, OR JAVONTE? DEFEND THE PICK.

Awards are editorial. All scores use First Take's Week 4 scoring.

Season records through Weeks 1–4. Current team names label each roster.

High score

Ivan 186.62 · Week 4

Low score

AsianPersuasion 88.02 · Week 1

Biggest blowout

Goons 148.94 — GWIDDYIN 88.56. Margin 60.38 · Week 3

Closest game

Ivan 152.90 — Pirate Flag 148.30. Margin 4.60 · Week 1

Most points in a loss

Glock 158.52 · Week 4

Longest win streak

Ivan 4 · active

Longest losing streak

imalik 4 · active

How many other scores did each team beat?

Each week, we compare a team’s score with the other nine teams’ scores. Four weeks gives 36 comparisons. Ivan’s 29–7 means his score was higher in 29 comparisons and lower in seven. His actual record is still 4–0; this measure helps show how much the matchup draw affected results.

The argument inside the numbers

Ivan leads the standings at 4–0. Ameed’s Glock Purdy beat 30 other weekly scores, one more than Ivan, despite losing to him in Week 4. Kamar and Rob each beat 17 scores and trailed 19, although their actual records differ. This comparison describes past scoring, not next week’s winner.

Ivan has the best record and most points. Ameed has beaten the most weekly scores. Who has the stronger claim to best team?

WEEK 5: THE COMPLAINTS KEEP COMING.

Cold Rome vs ivan1265: the next test

Farhan enters 3-1 after a 46.90-point win. Ivan arrives 4-0 after beating the week’s second-highest score. Four-game points: Rome 580.92; Ivan 635.90. Farhan gets a chance to hand Ivan his first loss.

Editorial lean: Ivan. Moderate confidence.

Voltron Fc vs Glen Burnie Goons: the record vs the receipts

Voltron is 2-2. The Goons are 1-3 but have scored 16.16 more points. A Goons win leaves both 2-3. A Voltron win creates a two-win gap: 3-2 vs 1-4.

Editorial lean: Goons. Low confidence.

Also at the window

Glock Purdy vs GWIDDYIN: the cover’s two tickets finally become one matchup. Pirate Flag vs COKEHEADS: 3-1 meets 1-3; COKEHEADS needs the table to move. AsianPersuasion vs imalik: Rob seeks a winning record; Ibrahim seeks win No. 1.

Editorial leans use results through Week 4. They are not player projections or injury-adjusted forecasts.

Does Rome end Ivan’s unbeaten run? Do the Goons deserve the comeback pick? Choose one upset. Give one football reason. Keep the receipt.